Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
Ω
OMEGA PICK
62%
Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8.5
OMEGA line projects DAL -10.0, but market is only -8.5 — the Bucs get a full 1.5 points of value vs model, and the +8.5 at -105 is a positive CLV setup.
Ω Bottom Line
Bucs +8.5 at -105: getting 1.5 points of model value vs DAL -10.0, +4.7% EV despite QB uncertainty
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Line: 8.5
OMEGA line projects DAL -10.0, but market is only -8.5 — the Bucs get a full 1.5 points of value vs model, and the +8.5 at -105 is a positive CLV setup.
MONEYLINE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucs at +360 implies 21.7% win probability, but model sees 24% — a small +2.3% edge on a high-variance underdog with a backup QB.
TOTAL
under
Line: 47.5
OMEGA projects 57.0 total, but market is 47.5 — a massive 9.5-point gap. However, without Mayfield, the Bucs offense likely stalls, pushing the game under the market total.
Game Analysis
OMEGA model is 1.5 pts stronger than market on Dallas (-10.0 vs -8.5) with 33.5-23.6 scoring and 29.0 vs 19.6 form, and 9.5 pts over the 47.5 total (57.0/58.5 projections). With no sharp, market-movement, or confirmed injury-out data, both stay Lean-tier display-only leans and -455 ML is a hard pass on juice.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
CeeDee Lamb
Dallas Cowboys
Over 82.5 receiving_yards
58%
With Tyler Smith out, Dallas may lean on quick passing game. Lamb averages 88 yards last 10 games; line at 82.5 is slightly soft.
PROP ALERT
Rico Dowdle
Dallas Cowboys
Over 55.5 rushing_yards
56%
Dowdle has been the lead back; Bucs run defense is average. Line at 55.5 is below his recent average of 62.