Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Ω
OMEGA PICK
64%
Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
New York Yankees
None
calibrated home posterior 63.8% matches market but injury net +5.5% home with McClanahan out vs Judge absence keeps NYY side
Ω Bottom Line
No quant edge with 63.8% posterior = market; home ML PASS on +5.5% net injury gap, Rays +1.5 only for +0.4pp Market Consensus fair gap
Game Analysis
Fusion says Yankees 57% vs Kalshi 59% (-2pp, lean Rays) while MC says Yankees 71.7% win and cover -0.5 with 5.4-3.2 score. Home form EWMA 9.0 vs 1.0 and net injury +5.5% to home favor Yankees, but Judge IL tempers it. Whale EXTREME $160K home 82% backs the Kalshi shade, so only thin away ML value and Lean over 8.0 remain.