Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays
1.5
Away +1.5 cover posterior 54.8% vs 50.0% market (+4.8pp); OMEGA -0.5 vs market -1.5 shows 1.0 pt overpricing of home
Ω Bottom Line
Rays +138 shows +10.2 EV as calibrated 45.3% tops 37.9% market with OMEGA only -0.5 vs -1.5
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
Tampa Bay Rays
calibrated away posterior 45.3% vs 37.9% market (+7.4pp) at +138
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays
Line: 1.5
Away +1.5 cover posterior 54.8% vs 50.0% market (+4.8pp); OMEGA -0.5 vs market -1.5 shows 1.0 pt overpricing of home
Game Analysis
Books price Yankees -158 for 61.2% and fusion agrees at 61.2% for zero edge, with injury net +5.5% home only offsetting Judge loss. Only measurable edge is total over 7.0 with 52.9% fair and +6.9% EV plus 2.0% sharp over lean. Degraded 61% data with no pitchers or simulation keeps everything at Lean PASS.