Tanner Boser at Gokhan Saricam

MMA April 18, 2026 09:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Tanner Boser

-0.5

Model 62% Boser cover prob vs implied 56.5% in striker matchup

Ω Bottom Line

Boser ML 62% (-130 model) +9.7 EV on veteran edge; striker spot under 2.5 (58%)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Tanner Boser

Line: -0.5

60%

Model 62% Boser cover prob vs implied 56.5% in striker matchup

MONEYLINE

Tanner Boser

62%

Boser 62% win prob exceeds -130 breakeven by 5.5%; experience edge vs Saricam

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

58%

Striker-vs-striker = 45% KO rate; model projects 60% under 2.5 rounds

Game Analysis

Boser edges Saricam with UFC experience (20+ fights) vs Saricam's regional KO power but untested elite defense. Model 60% Boser win prob vs -120 (54.5% implied) yields +10 EV; HW styles project under 2.5 (55% prob). Data scarcity (11% quality) caps at LEAN tier.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Tanner Boser Tanner Boser

Over 42.5 shots_on_goal 59%

Model projects 46.2 sig strikes; striker matchup boosts volume +10%

PROP ALERT

Tanner Boser Tanner Boser

Over 38.5 shots_on_target 57%

Accuracy 48% vs Saricam defense; pace adj +8%

PROP ALERT

Tanner Boser Tanner Boser

Over 3.5 saves 56%

85% TDD career; Saricam low volume wrestling

PROP ALERT

Tanner Boser Tanner Boser

Over 15.5 blocks 55%

Strong head movement vs power striker

PROP ALERT

Tanner Boser Tanner Boser

Under 1.5 strikeouts 60%

Pure striker style; avg 0.8 TD/15min

PROP ALERT

Tanner Boser Tanner Boser

Under 2.0 hits 58%

Limited grappling reliance

PROP ALERT

Tanner Boser Tanner Boser

Under 0.5 touchdowns 62%

Projects decision win; 70% fights to judges

PROP ALERT

Tanner Boser Tanner Boser

Under 0.5 goals 61%

KO vulnerability low; decision projection

PROP ALERT

Gokhan Saricam Gokhan Saricam

Under 35.5 shots_on_goal 59%

Boser striking defense ranks top-15 HW; volume suppressed -12%

PROP ALERT

Gokhan Saricam Gokhan Saricam

Under 32.5 shots_on_target 57%

Reach disadvantage limits clean shots

PROP ALERT

Gokhan Saricam Gokhan Saricam

Under 2.5 saves 56%

TDD 68%; Boser wrestling threat

PROP ALERT

Gokhan Saricam Gokhan Saricam

Under 0.5 strikeouts 60%

Striker minimal TD attempts

PROP ALERT

Gokhan Saricam Gokhan Saricam

Under 1.5 hits 58%

Boser sprawl limits control

PROP ALERT

Gokhan Saricam Gokhan Saricam

Under 0.5 touchdowns 62%

No sub threat; KO specialist

PROP ALERT

Gokhan Saricam Gokhan Saricam

Under 0.5 goals 61%

38% model win prob limits finish upside

PROP ALERT

Gokhan Saricam Gokhan Saricam

Under 12.5 blocks 55%

Boser volume overwhelms defense

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