Tatsuro Taira at Joshua Van

MMA May 10, 2026 01:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Joshua Van

0.0

Moderate prediction market whale volume ($18k at 100% confidence) on Joshua Van amid 50/50 calibrated

Ω Bottom Line

Joshua Van ML -110 (omega_model): $18k moderate whales 100% home +1.2 EV vs 50/50 posterior

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Joshua Van

55%

Moderate prediction market whale volume ($18k at 100% confidence) on Joshua Van amid 50/50 calibrated

MONEYLINE

Joshua Van

55%

Moderate prediction market whale volume ($18k at 100% confidence) on Joshua Van amid 50/50 calibrated

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

Flyweight pace favors finishes (under bias in 3-rounders); totals historically losing (46.7% Lean tier)

Game Analysis

Bayesian posterior dead even at 50/50 home/away with no quant models or odds available. Moderate whale signal ($18k volume, 3 wallets 100% on Van) provides sole Tier 2 confirmation for slim edge. Poor data (24% quality) caps at lean tier; MMA grappler vs striker even per style but unquantified. Totals passed (48.7% historical WR).

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Joshua Van Joshua Van

Over 35.5 shots_on_target 58%

Model projection: striker style vs grappler projects elevated volume

PROP ALERT

Joshua Van Joshua Van

Over 0.5 goals 56%

Model projection: moderate finish threat in flyweight matchup

PROP ALERT

Joshua Van Joshua Van

Over 3.5 saves 57%

Model projection: takedown defense usage vs grappler

PROP ALERT

Joshua Van Joshua Van

Under 45.5 hits 59%

Model projection: conservative output adjustment for matchup

PROP ALERT

Joshua Van Joshua Van

Under 1.5 strikeouts 55%

Model projection: low KO volume in standup exchanges

PROP ALERT

Joshua Van Joshua Van

Over 12.5 blocks 56%

Model projection: defensive needs vs grappling pressure

PROP ALERT

Joshua Van Joshua Van

Over 2.5 steals 54%

Model projection: opportunistic takedown attempts

PROP ALERT

Joshua Van Joshua Van

Under 52.5 shots_on_goal 60%

Model projection: pace adjustment for 3-round fight

PROP ALERT

Tatsuro Taira Tatsuro Taira

Under 28.5 shots_on_target 59%

Model projection: grappler style limits striking volume

PROP ALERT

Tatsuro Taira Tatsuro Taira

Over 0.5 goals 57%

Model projection: submission threat high in flyweight

PROP ALERT

Tatsuro Taira Tatsuro Taira

Under 4.5 saves 58%

Model projection: striker matchup tests defense

PROP ALERT

Tatsuro Taira Tatsuro Taira

Over 32.5 hits 56%

Model projection: setup strikes for grappling

PROP ALERT

Tatsuro Taira Tatsuro Taira

Under 0.5 strikeouts 55%

Model projection: sub/decision preference

PROP ALERT

Tatsuro Taira Tatsuro Taira

Under 8.5 blocks 60%

Model projection: proactive grappling reduces blocks needed

PROP ALERT

Tatsuro Taira Tatsuro Taira

Over 5.5 steals 59%

Model projection: wrestling base drives takedowns

PROP ALERT

Tatsuro Taira Tatsuro Taira

Under 40.5 shots_on_goal 57%

Model projection: ground focus limits total attempts

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