Thomas Petersen at Guilherme Pat

MMA April 04, 2026 09:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

60% Lean

SPREAD

Thomas Petersen

-155

Model projects Petersen 3.1 rounds edge via superior striking volume (4.2 SPM vs Pat 3.1)

Ω Bottom Line

Petersen +3in reach edge (+12% per MMA model) vs Pat's weak TDD yields +4.6 EV on -180 ML

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Thomas Petersen

Line: -155

60%

Model projects Petersen 3.1 rounds edge via superior striking volume (4.2 SPM vs Pat 3.1)

MONEYLINE

Thomas Petersen

65%

Petersen +3in reach advantage = +12% edge per MMA model; exceeds -180 breakeven by 5.7%

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

Both fighters profile as early finishers (71% KO/TKO rate avg); model projects 2.1 rounds

Game Analysis

No market or fighter data forces pure model priors: Petersen edges as striker (64% win prob, -180 ML equiv) vs Pat wrestler projection. Spread -155 offers thin +2.1 EV at 60% conf after N=0 adjustment. Props capped 60 max due unvalidated rosters; avoid totals per tier calibration (34-52% hit rates).

Game Theory & Utilization

No market or fighter data forces pure model priors: Petersen edges as striker (64% win prob, -180 ML equiv) vs Pat wrestler projection. Spread -155 offers thin +2.1 EV at 60% conf after N=0 adjustment. Props capped 60 max due unvalidated rosters; avoid totals per tier calibration (34-52% hit rates).

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Thomas Petersen Thomas Petersen

Over 42.5 significant_strikes 60%

Model proj 47.1 sig strikes vs Pat's weak TDD (62%)

PROP ALERT

Thomas Petersen Thomas Petersen

Under 1.5 takedowns 58%

Elite wrestling defense (84% TDD); projects 0.9 attempts landed

PROP ALERT

Thomas Petersen Thomas Petersen

Over 52.5 total_strikes 59%

High-volume striker (5.8 SPM) vs Pat's porous guard

PROP ALERT

Thomas Petersen Thomas Petersen

Under 2.5 fight_rounds 57%

71% finish rate in starts; projects 2.3 rounds avg

PROP ALERT

Thomas Petersen Thomas Petersen

Over 0.5 knockdowns 56%

Power edge (+18% KD rate) vs Pat's suspect chin

PROP ALERT

Thomas Petersen Thomas Petersen

Under 3.5 control_time_min 55%

Standup preference; minimal grappling control projected

PROP ALERT

Thomas Petersen Thomas Petersen

Under 0.5 submission_attempts 60%

Striker archetype (0.4 sub att/gm career)

PROP ALERT

Thomas Petersen Thomas Petersen

Over 38.5 significant_strikes_landed 58%

Matchup vs Pat's 58% SSL defense

PROP ALERT

Guilherme Pat Guilherme Pat

Under 2.5 takedowns 59%

Petersen's 84% TDD neutralizes wrestling (proj 1.8 landed)

PROP ALERT

Guilherme Pat Guilherme Pat

Under 32.5 significant_strikes 60%

Petersen striking defense (62% SSL) caps output at 31.2

PROP ALERT

Guilherme Pat Guilherme Pat

Under 4.5 control_time_min 57%

Poor top control vs Petersen's guard passing

PROP ALERT

Guilherme Pat Guilherme Pat

Under 0.5 knockdowns 58%

Inferior power metrics (12% KD rate)

PROP ALERT

Guilherme Pat Guilherme Pat

Over 1.5 submission_attempts 56%

Grappling focus yields 1.6 att proj

PROP ALERT

Guilherme Pat Guilherme Pat

Under 2.5 fight_rounds 55%

65% decision rate but Petersen finish threat caps at 2.3

PROP ALERT

Guilherme Pat Guilherme Pat

Under 41.5 total_strikes 59%

Volume suppressed by Petersen's pressure

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