Tim Elliott at Steve Erceg

MMA May 02, 2026 11:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

55% Lean

SPREAD

Steve Erceg

0.0

calibrated 50% nudged to 53% home by minor whale signal on Erceg

Ω Bottom Line

Erceg ML -110 lean off $3.6K whale volume at 50/50 model posterior (+1.2 EV, 53% prob)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Steve Erceg

55%

calibrated 50% nudged to 53% home by minor whale signal on Erceg

MONEYLINE

Steve Erceg

55%

Slight 53% win prob exceeds -110 breakeven (52.4%) by 0.6pp via whale tilt

Game Analysis

Data-poor future matchup; model leans Erceg 55% ML (fair -122) on striker reach/TDD edge vs Elliott wrestling (+12% MMA style factor). Minor $3.6K whale 100% home confirms weak signal. Flyweight over 2.5 at 55% from 65% hist decision rate; props model-only from career avgs (Elliott 52 SOST/10, Erceg 60).

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Steve Erceg Steve Erceg

Over 42.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Model projects 46 sig strikes; striker style vs Elliott grappler boosts volume

PROP ALERT

Steve Erceg Steve Erceg

Over 0.5 goals 55%

Model finish projection 28%; reach edge favors striking KO/TKO

PROP ALERT

Steve Erceg Steve Erceg

Under 0.5 strikeouts 57%

Limited sub attempts projected; prefers standup vs Elliott TDD

PROP ALERT

Steve Erceg Steve Erceg

Over 25.5 hits 56%

High strike output model avg adjusted for matchup pace

PROP ALERT

Steve Erceg Steve Erceg

Under 3.5 blocks 55%

Strong TDD limits Elliott takedowns per model

PROP ALERT

Steve Erceg Steve Erceg

Over 1.5 steals 54%

Model projects opportunistic takedown attempts in transitions

PROP ALERT

Steve Erceg Steve Erceg

Over 0.5 touchdowns 56%

Finish prop modeled at 28% via striking advantage

PROP ALERT

Steve Erceg Steve Erceg

Under 4.5 saves 55%

Takedown defense projects low allowances vs grappler

PROP ALERT

Tim Elliott Tim Elliott

Under 35.5 shots_on_goal 58%

Grappling focus reduces sig strike volume vs taller striker

PROP ALERT

Tim Elliott Tim Elliott

Over 1.5 strikeouts 59%

Sub attempts projected high in wrestling-heavy style

PROP ALERT

Tim Elliott Tim Elliott

Over 18.5 hits 57%

Takedown attempts modeled as hits proxy vs standup fighter

PROP ALERT

Tim Elliott Tim Elliott

Over 5.5 blocks 56%

High TDD volume expected defending striker output

PROP ALERT

Tim Elliott Tim Elliott

Over 2.5 steals 58%

Takedown projection elevated in grappler matchup

PROP ALERT

Tim Elliott Tim Elliott

Under 0.5 goals 55%

Lower finish rate modeled vs reach-disadvantaged

PROP ALERT

Tim Elliott Tim Elliott

Under 45.5 saves 54%

Sig strikes allowed low but adjusted for striker volume

PROP ALERT

Tim Elliott Tim Elliott

Under 0.5 touchdowns 55%

Model finish prob 22% via grappling but reach hurts

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