Tottenham Hotspur at Aston Villa
Ω
OMEGA PICK
57%
Lean
SPREAD
Aston Villa
-0.5
Posterior 46.5% home win aligns with spread cover prob but odds at +105 yield breakeven EV
Ω Bottom Line
Aston Villa ML +115 breakeven at 46.5% posterior prob; neutral EV, poor data caps edge
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Aston Villa
Line: -0.5
Posterior 46.5% home win aligns with spread cover prob but odds at +105 yield breakeven EV
MONEYLINE
Aston Villa
calibrated 46.5% exactly matches +115 breakeven win rate for zero EV but playable dog price
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion posterior pegs Aston Villa win at 46.5%, exact breakeven for +115 ML with zero edge vs market. No injuries, form, or situational flags; Kalshi at 45.5% home confirms neutrality. Poor data quality (27%) and losing historical totals force low-confidence leans only.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Ollie Watkins
Aston Villa
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Season 11 goals/33 matches (0.33 gpg); model projection under vs Tottenham defense (model-generated line)
PROP ALERT
Ollie Watkins
Aston Villa
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
Typical forward SOT ~1.2-1.5; neutral matchup projection (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Morgan Rogers
Aston Villa
Under 0.5 assists
59%
5 assists/34 matches (~0.15); low usage projection (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Morgan Rogers
Aston Villa
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
57%
Limited shots volume inferred from role (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Ezri Konsa
Aston Villa
Over 0.0 shots_on_target
55%
Defender rare SOT; minimal projection (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Emiliano Martínez
Aston Villa
Over 2.5 saves
58%
~85 saves season avg ~2.5 spg vs Tottenham attack (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Morgan Rogers
Aston Villa
Under 0.5 goals
56%
Secondary attacker low goal rate (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Emiliano Martínez
Aston Villa
Under 3.5 shots_on_goal
57%
Expected shots faced ~3-4; under in low total game (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Richarlison
Tottenham Hotspur
Under 0.5 goals
60%
9 goals/28 matches (0.32 gpg); consistent under projection (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Richarlison
Tottenham Hotspur
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
Avg SOT aligns under vs Villa defense (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Xavi Simons
Tottenham Hotspur
Under 0.5 assists
59%
5 assists/28 (~0.18); low projection (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Xavi Simons
Tottenham Hotspur
Under 1.0 shots_on_target
57%
Midfield role limits SOT (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Richarlison
Tottenham Hotspur
Under 0.5 goals
56%
Repeat under on season avg (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Guglielmo Vicario
Tottenham Hotspur
Over 2.5 saves
58%
~83 saves season avg ~2.4 spg vs Villa (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Micky van de Ven
Tottenham Hotspur
Over 0.0 shots_on_target
55%
Defender occasional SOT (model-generated)
PROP ALERT
Guglielmo Vicario
Tottenham Hotspur
Under 3.0 shots_on_goal
57%
Low total game reduces shots faced (model-generated)