Udinese at Cagliari
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Udinese
0.5
calibrated 60% Udinese +0.5 cover aligns with market but heavy juice at -195
Ω Bottom Line
Zero Bayesian edge on Udinese 60% ML (-185 too juiced); home +150 breakeven exact match in low-data spot
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Udinese
Line: 0.5
calibrated 60% Udinese +0.5 cover aligns with market but heavy juice at -195
MONEYLINE
Cagliari
Home ML +150 matches exact 40% posterior; breakeven hit with de-vig
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion posterior matches de-vigged market at 59% Udinese ML / +0.5 cover, 41% Cagliari -0.5, zero edge across models. Heavy juice on favorite (-190/-195) kills EV despite alignment; home dog +145 near breakeven but no surplus prob. Poor data (24% signals) caps all at Lean; monitor CLV as no movement yet.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Sebastiano Esposito
Cagliari
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Season 0.18 goals/match vs 0.5 line; low-usage forward in poor Cagliari attack
PROP ALERT
Sebastiano Esposito
Cagliari
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
Limited shots in 33 matches; matchup vs Udinese defense caps volume
PROP ALERT
Elia Caprile
Cagliari
Over 3.5 saves
57%
114 saves season avg ~3.5; Udinese attack generates shots
PROP ALERT
Yerry Mina
Cagliari
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
59%
Defender low shot volume; 997 aerials but minimal SOT
PROP ALERT
Keinan Davis
Udinese
Under 0.5 goals
60%
10 goals/27 matches =0.37 avg; Cagliari defense limits finishers
PROP ALERT
Nicolò Zaniolo
Udinese
Under 0.5 assists
58%
6 assists/31 =0.19 avg; low creativity vs Cagliari
PROP ALERT
Nicolò Zaniolo
Udinese
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
71 SOT? low per game; home defense matchup
PROP ALERT
Maduka Okoye
Udinese
Over 2.5 saves
59%
70 saves season; Cagliari generates ~10 shots/game
PROP ALERT
Oumar Solet
Udinese
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
56%
Defender minimal SOT; 1667 minutes but low offense
PROP ALERT
Keinan Davis
Udinese
Under 1.5 shots_on_target
56%
Target man but inefficient SOT vs Cagliari