Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
Utah Jazz
11.5
Pinnacle de-vigged spread at even money (50/50) vs retail -11.5, weak sharp away edge 0.7%
Ω Bottom Line
Total over crushed with 23.9% sharp edge + RLM on 242.5; spread value Jazz +11.5 at even Pinnacle fair
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Utah Jazz
Line: 11.5
Pinnacle de-vigged spread at even money (50/50) vs retail -11.5, weak sharp away edge 0.7%
TOTAL
over
Line: 242.5
Strong sharp over signal 23.9% edge + RLM; Pinnacle fair over 51.9% vs retail pricing
Game Analysis
Massive injuries both sides (Pelicans missing Murray/Murphy; Jazz w/o Markkanen/Nurkic/George) but MC still projects Pelicans +3.4 margin (56.2% win) from home court + omega_line -3.0. Spread cover 49.7% slim but ML +3.1EV vs -119. Under 203 leans value w/ depleted scoring (MC 49.6%) despite totals mixed calibration.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Lauri Markkanen
Utah Jazz
Over 22.5 points
62%
Star forward usage spikes with Collier/George out, projected 24.0pts
PROP ALERT
Lauri Markkanen
Utah Jazz
Over 8.0 rebounds
60%
Board work increases sans Filipowski DTD, matchup vs depleted NOLA frontcourt
PROP ALERT
Jusuf Nurkic
Utah Jazz
Over 9.5 rebounds
61%
Primary center with Kessler minutes share, NOLA bigs thin
PROP ALERT
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Utah Jazz
Over 18.5 points
59%
Defensive anchor steps up scoring with backcourt injuries
PROP ALERT
Walker Kessler
Utah Jazz
Over 1.5 blocks
58%
Rim protection vs NOLA interior, model proj 1.8
PROP ALERT
Kennedy Chandler
Utah Jazz
Over 4.0 assists
56%
Fills in for Collier/George out, distrib role up
PROP ALERT
Herbert Jones
New Orleans Pelicans
Over 14.5 points
63%
Usage boost with Murphy out/Murray DTD, wing primary
PROP ALERT
Jordan Hawkins
New Orleans Pelicans
Over 2.5 three_pointers
60%
Shooting load increases sans Murphy, pace favors overs
PROP ALERT
Hunter Dickinson
New Orleans Pelicans
Over 8.5 rebounds
62%
Center minutes expand with Matkovic out, Utah weak interior
PROP ALERT
Saddiq Bey
New Orleans Pelicans
Over 12.0 points
59%
Spot-up role bigger with injuries, total over sharp signal
PROP ALERT
Yves Missi
New Orleans Pelicans
Over 6.5 rebounds
58%
Backup big sees run with thin frontcourt
PROP ALERT
DeAndre Jordan
New Orleans Pelicans
Under 5.5 rebounds
57%
Veteran limited vs Utah length
PROP ALERT
Trey Alexander
New Orleans Pelicans
Over 3.5 assists
56%
Backup PG handles with Murray DTD