Utah Jazz at New Orleans Pelicans
Ω
DDN SI PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
New Orleans Pelicans
-16.0
Dual-model convergence: scoring model expected score margin (129.1-112.8 = +16.3) and NegBin (+16.5) both land on a ~16-point home spread with Utah missing Jackson Jr. and Nurkic up front.
Ω Bottom Line
Pelicans -16 on dual-model scoring model/NegBin agreement (+16.3/+16.5 margins), but no market line exists — 0u display lean with the injury-cascade prop edge on Trey Murphy III 24.5 points
Game Analysis
Model says Pelicans big: scoring model and NegBin both land right at -16 (129.1-112.8 expected) with 80.8% home win prob, but with no market line to verify against and Utah getting Jackson Jr. and Nurkic back nowhere, this is a display-tier lean at best. The -420-equivalent ML is a hard PASS by the juice filter. Real value reading is the injury cascade: Murphy III and Queen get massive usage bumps with Murray, Poole, and Missi all OUT for New Orleans.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Trey Murphy III
New Orleans Pelicans
Over 24.5 points
63%
Murray and Poole both OUT remove the team's top two backcourt initiators, pushing 30%+ combined usage onto Murphy; model projection is season-average-plus-injury-cascade lift.
PROP ALERT
Derik Queen
New Orleans Pelicans
Over 7.5 rebounds
64%
Yves Missi (the team's starting center) is OUT, clearing 25-28 minutes of center minutes for Queen against a Utah frontcourt missing Nurkic and Jackson Jr.
PROP ALERT
Lauri Markkanen
Utah Jazz
Over 25.5 points
66%
Jackson Jr. and Nurkic both OUT strip Utah's secondary rim runners, concentrating offensive load on Markkanen in a projected plus-pace game (242-245 total range).
PROP ALERT
Keyonte George
Utah Jazz
Over 5.5 assists
62%
Alexander and Nurkic OUT reduce Utah's secondary creation, leaving George as the primary hub; usage concentration supports a half-assist lift over his baseline.