Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA April 05, 2026 11:00 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

74% High Edge

SPREAD

Oklahoma City Thunder

-23.5

Jazz depleted (Markkanen/George/Collier/Nurkic OUT = -35% offense); model projects OKC 128-100 (+28 cover)

Ω Bottom Line

OKC -23.5 (74% conf) as Jazz lose 6 core players; sharp 18% over edge on 238.5 (+5.1 EV)

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Oklahoma City Thunder

Line: -23.5

74%

Jazz depleted (Markkanen/George/Collier/Nurkic OUT = -35% offense); model projects OKC 128-100 (+28 cover)

TOTAL

over

Line: 238.5

70%

Strong sharp signal 18.1% edge over + RLM; Pinnacle fair 51.1% over vs retail pricing; OKC pace pushes total despite Jazz injuries

Game Analysis

Utah gutted by 8 injuries (Markkanen/George/Nurkic/Collier OUT) projects -25% efficiency vs healthy OKC stars; SGA 32+ pts, Chet 9+ reb feast. Spread -21.5 has +5.1 EV as model sees 27pt win (125-98). ML PASS at -4000 juice despite 92% prob; tier data favors high-confidence spreads.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Oklahoma City Thunder

Over 32.5 points 65%

League-leading scorer vs decimated Jazz defense; usage spikes 25%+ vs weak opponents

PROP ALERT

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Oklahoma City Thunder

Over 6.5 assists 62%

Primary creator with Jazz PGs out; projects 8+ APG in blowout

PROP ALERT

Chet Holmgren Oklahoma City Thunder

Over 9.0 rebounds 64%

Jazz bigs Nurkic/Markkanen out = rebounding vacuum; +2 board projection

PROP ALERT

Chet Holmgren Oklahoma City Thunder

Over 2.5 blocks 60%

Elite rim protector vs depleted Jazz frontcourt

PROP ALERT

Alex Caruso Oklahoma City Thunder

Over 11.5 points 58%

Minutes boost in blowout + transition opportunities

PROP ALERT

Luguentz Dort Oklahoma City Thunder

Over 2.0 three_pointers 59%

Volume shooter vs weak perimeter D

PROP ALERT

Isaiah Hartenstein Oklahoma City Thunder

Over 8.5 rebounds 61%

Backup big feasts on glass vs injured Jazz

PROP ALERT

Cason Wallace Oklahoma City Thunder

Over 3.5 assists 57%

Secondary playmaking in fast-paced game

PROP ALERT

Jaren Jackson Jr. Utah Jazz

Over 22.5 points 63%

Alpha with entire roster out; 30+ shot attempts projected

PROP ALERT

Walker Kessler Utah Jazz

Over 11.0 rebounds 64%

Only healthy big vs OKC frontcourt; double-double lock

PROP ALERT

Kevin Love Utah Jazz

Over 12.5 points 60%

Veteran usage spike in depleted rotation

PROP ALERT

Kyle Filipowski Utah Jazz

Over 7.5 rebounds 59%

Rookie steps up with bigs out; board projection +1.5

Back to Intel Briefs Full Game Detail