Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns
Ω
OMEGA PICK
68%
Strong
SPREAD
Phoenix Suns
-6.5
Suns retain 25.5ppg Booker vs depleted Jazz missing Markkanen/Keyonte/Collier/Nurkic
Ω Bottom Line
Suns -6.5 (+3.2EV): Booker carries vs Jazz missing Markkanen/Keyonte/Nurkic (50+ppg out), model 72% Suns win
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Phoenix Suns
Line: -6.5
Suns retain 25.5ppg Booker vs depleted Jazz missing Markkanen/Keyonte/Collier/Nurkic
MONEYLINE
Phoenix Suns
72% win prob vs 72% implied with Suns 2-0 model vs Suns and Jazz missing top scorers
TOTAL
Under 208.5
Both teams missing 40+ppg combined from Markkanen(star)/Keyonte(23.6)/Collier(7.2 assists)
Game Analysis
Booker carries Suns with 4 key outs (Brooks/Coffey/Highsmith/Williams) projecting 29pts on 68% win prob. Jazz decimated worse sans Markkanen/George/Collier/Nurkic dropping offense -22%. Model totals 213 but depleted pace favors under 212.5. CLV edge on Suns ML +4.8 EV.
Game Theory & Utilization
Booker carries Suns with 4 key outs (Brooks/Coffey/Highsmith/Williams) projecting 29pts on 68% win prob. Jazz decimated worse sans Markkanen/George/Collier/Nurkic dropping offense -22%. Model totals 213 but depleted pace favors under 212.5. CLV edge on Suns ML +4.8 EV.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Devin Booker
Phoenix Suns
Over 26.5 points
65%
Usage +25% with Brooks/Coffey/Highsmith out, projects 28.2pts in 34min
PROP ALERT
Devin Booker
Phoenix Suns
Over 6.0 assists
62%
Primary creator with multiple wings out, depleted Jazz defense allows +1.2 APG
PROP ALERT
Grayson Allen
Phoenix Suns
Over 12.5 points
60%
Expanded role with 4 wings out, projects 14pts on increased shots vs depleted Jazz
PROP ALERT
Walker Kessler
Utah Jazz
Over 9.5 rebounds
64%
Only healthy big with Nurkic/Markkanen out, projects 10.8 boards in 28min
PROP ALERT
Kevin Love
Utah Jazz
Over 11.0 points
61%
Forced into larger role sans Markkanen/Keyonte, matchup vs thin Suns frontcourt
PROP ALERT
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Utah Jazz
Under 18.5 points
63%
Usage drops -15% with Markkanen out taking touches, Suns D ranks top-8 vs SF
PROP ALERT
Oso Ighodaro
Phoenix Suns
Over 6.5 rebounds
59%
Backup big minutes expand with Mark Williams out, weak Jazz frontcourt