Utah Mammoth at Montreal Canadiens
Ω
DDN SI PICK
54%
Lean
MONEYLINE
Utah Mammoth
None
Market Consensus fair value (53.3% away) runs 1.1% above retail's 49.5% home lean, giving Utah the only directional read — but posterior edge is 0.0pp, well below the 59.9% needed at -122.
Ω Bottom Line
Sharps lean Utah (-122) with Market Consensus fair value 53.3% vs retail 49.5%, but 0.0pp posterior edge and whale money on Montreal make this a no-bet — PASS all three markets.
Game Analysis
calibrated gives Montreal a 57.5% posterior vs 51% market, but model agreement is VERY_LOW and model simulation shows no edge (48.7% home cover). NHL is on calibration PAUSE (-13.9% ROI) so all bets are Lean-tier only. injuries hurt Montreal more (-25% vs -15.8%) which the model doesn't fully credit.