Utah Mammoth at Philadelphia Flyers
Ω
DDN SI PICK
62%
Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Flyers
1.5
Home +1.5 cover posterior is 62.0% vs 61.4% devigged market — scoring model margin (-1.7 std 2.5) keeps one-goal games frequent enough to protect the +1.5
Ω Bottom Line
Utah Mammoth ML at -175: calibrated 67% vs 59.2% market = +7.8pp edge, flyers 3-8-4 with two key IRs — +$4.4 EV per $100
All DDN SI Picks
MONEYLINE
Utah Mammoth
calibrated posterior 67.0% for Utah vs 59.2% devigged market is a +7.8pp edge, with Dixon-Coles (2.09-4.00) and MC (18.9% home win) both deeply favoring Utah
SPREAD
Philadelphia Flyers
Line: 1.5
Home +1.5 cover posterior is 62.0% vs 61.4% devigged market — scoring model margin (-1.7 std 2.5) keeps one-goal games frequent enough to protect the +1.5
TOTAL
over
Line: 6.5
Market Consensus de-vigged fair total is 49.5% over, but Value Line offers +112 → +5.0% EV, the best-priced plus-money side on the board
Game Analysis
This is a wipeout of a card spot for us: the fusion posterior matches Public Line to the decimal on the moneyline (57.6% both ways), so there is no edge on any market — the -162/-134 juices already charge for the Flyers' -25% injury hit and Utah's -18.9%. NHL is PAUSED under the calibration override after -13.9% ROI on 21 real-money picks with a 25% CLV beat. We're passing everything; the required picks are priced as no-bet.