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Utah Mammoth at Vegas Golden Knights

NHL May 03, 2026 04:00 AM ET
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Utah Mammoth
1.5
calibrated 54.6% Utah covers +1.5 vs market 50% with Omega spread even at 0.0
Ω Bottom Line
Utah +1.5 (55% conf, +4.7pp edge, sharp 13.5%) & Over 6 (60% conf, +15pp) - models see even game, vapor total

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD
Utah Mammoth
Line: 1.5
55%
calibrated 54.6% Utah covers +1.5 vs market 50% with Omega spread even at 0.0
TOTAL
over
Line: 6.0
60%
Over posterior 65.2% vs market 50% with OMEGA total and Dixon-Coles 19.2 combined goals

Game Analysis

Sharp money shows 13.5% edge on Utah +1.5 cover (Pinnacle fair 64% vs market 50%), overriding whale home ML volume. Bayesian ML posterior flat at 60.8% matching vigged line, zero EV. Totals weak with fair under 52.5% but historical NHL totals 48.7% WR.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT
Jack Eichel Vegas Golden Knights
Over 1.0 points 60%
Season leader 63 pts, high usage vs injured away, model projection 1.3
PROP ALERT
Jack Eichel Vegas Golden Knights
Over 0.5 assists 58%
90 assists leader, playmaker in even matchup
PROP ALERT
Pavel Dorofeyev Vegas Golden Knights
Over 0.5 goals 55%
37 goals pace, sniper vs Utah D
PROP ALERT
Pavel Dorofeyev Vegas Golden Knights
Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 57%
High volume shooter in projected high total
PROP ALERT
Jack Eichel Vegas Golden Knights
Over 2.0 shots_on_goal 59%
Consistent SOG, favorable matchup
PROP ALERT
Pavel Dorofeyev Vegas Golden Knights
Over 0.5 points 56%
Secondary scoring vs depleted Utah
PROP ALERT
Clayton Keller Utah Mammoth
Over 0.5 points 58%
62 pts leader, usage up with Hayton out
PROP ALERT
Clayton Keller Utah Mammoth
Over 0.5 assists 57%
88 assists, playmaking boost from injury cascade
PROP ALERT
Dylan Guenther Utah Mammoth
Under 0.5 goals 55%
40 goals pace but Vegas strong PK
PROP ALERT
Dylan Guenther Utah Mammoth
Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 59%
High volume in high-total spot
PROP ALERT
Clayton Keller Utah Mammoth
Over 2.0 shots_on_goal 56%
Increased shots with injury
PROP ALERT
Dylan Guenther Utah Mammoth
Over 0.5 points 60%
Model projects 0.7 pts in even game
PROP ALERT
Jack Eichel Vegas Golden Knights
Over 0.5 goals 55%
Sniper potential vs Utah
PROP ALERT
Clayton Keller Utah Mammoth
Under 0.5 goals 57%
Pass-first vs Vegas D
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