Vancouver Whitecaps at San Jose Earthquakes
Ω
OMEGA PICK
42%
Lean
MONEYLINE
San Jose Earthquakes
None
calibrated 41.6% home win vs market prior 34.5% (+7.1pp edge); high payout overcomes vig
Ω Bottom Line
San Jose +190 ML +20.6 EV (41.6% posterior vs 34.5% mkt); O3.5 +21 EV (63.7% vs 50%, Omega 7.5 total)
All OMEGA Picks
MONEYLINE
San Jose Earthquakes
calibrated 41.6% home win vs market prior 34.5% (+7.1pp edge); high payout overcomes vig
TOTAL
over
Line: 3.5
Over 3.5 posterior 63.7% vs market 50% (+13.7pp edge); OMEGA total & MC proj 6.9 vs 3.5
Game Analysis
Bayesian fusion IDs +7.1pp home win edge (41.6% vs 34.5%) for +20.6 EV on San Jose +190 ML despite market shade; Dixon-Coles even lambdas 6.4-6.4 drive over 3.5 posterior to 63.7% (+13.7pp, +21 EV). Omega spread/total massively divergent (0.0/-0.5 market, 7.5/3.5 total) signals inefficiency in smaller MLS market. Degraded data caps conf, but Tier 1 quant convergence on even high-scoring spot with both teams 8-1-1+ streaks.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Ryan Gauld
Vancouver Whitecaps
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
62%
High-usage CAM vs leaky SJ defense; pace projects high shots in even matchup
PROP ALERT
Ryan Gauld
Vancouver Whitecaps
Over 0.5 assists
58%
Team leader in key passes; SJ midfield vulnerable in high-total spot
PROP ALERT
Andrés Cubas
Vancouver Whitecaps
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
60%
Defensive mid low-volume shooter; focuses on interceptions not shots
PROP ALERT
Yohei Takaoka
Vancouver Whitecaps
Over 3.5 saves
65%
Omega proj 3.8 SJ goals; high SOG volume in shootout projection
PROP ALERT
Tristan Blackmon
Vancouver Whitecaps
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
63%
CB rarely shoots; low usage in possession game
PROP ALERT
Ranko Veselinovic
Vancouver Whitecaps
Under 0.5 goals
61%
Center back zero goal threat; set-piece specialist only
PROP ALERT
Sam Adekugbe
Vancouver Whitecaps
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
59%
LB defensive focus; minimal attacking returns
PROP ALERT
Nikola Djordjevic
Vancouver Whitecaps
Over 0.5 goals
55%
Forward depth usage up in rotation spot
PROP ALERT
Jonathan Gonzalez
San Jose Earthquakes
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
60%
Key mid in high-pace game; Van defense mid-table vs mids
PROP ALERT
Daniel
San Jose Earthquakes
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
61%
Team shots leader (proj from 22); favorable matchup
PROP ALERT
Reid Roberts
San Jose Earthquakes
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
64%
Depth mid low volume; minutes leader but not shooter
PROP ALERT
Earl Edwards
San Jose Earthquakes
Over 3.0 saves
63%
Van proj 3.8 goals; elevated SOG in model total 7.5
PROP ALERT
DeJuan Jones
San Jose Earthquakes
Under 0.5 goals
59%
Winger secondary threat; Van CB strong vs wing
PROP ALERT
Paul Marie
San Jose Earthquakes
Under 0.5 assists
57%
RB low creative role; focuses on crosses not final ball
PROP ALERT
Dave Romney
San Jose Earthquakes
Under 0.5 shots_on_target
62%
CB zero shot volume; defensive assignment priority
PROP ALERT
Vítor Costa
San Jose Earthquakes
Under 0.5 goals
60%
Defender no offensive output projected