Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings
Ω
DDN SI PICK
55%
Lean
TOTAL
UNDER
5.5
Market Consensus de-vigged fair value is under 51.3% while +117 implies only 46.1% — roughly +5pp of price-vs-fair gap, the single largest modeled edge in this game
Ω Bottom Line
No ML edge at -142 (54.5% vs 58.7% breakeven) — the only value is under 5.5 at +117 vs 51.3% Market Consensus fair, powered by Detroit missing Larkin/Kasper/Appleton
All DDN SI Picks
TOTAL
under
Line: 5.5
Market Consensus de-vigged fair value is under 51.3% while +117 implies only 46.1% — roughly +5pp of price-vs-fair gap, the single largest modeled edge in this game
Game Analysis
Detroit is down Larkin, Kasper, Edvinsson and Appleton on IR (-25% lambda impact) while Vegas rides Mitch Marner (15) and Jack Eichel (20), giving the model a mild away lean (57.6% posterior) — but the calibrated edge is only +0.6pp, deep inside the vig. No market odds, no sharp/public data, and the NHL cell is PAUSED after -13.9% ROI and 25% CLV beat. model sim is a coin flip (margin +0.0, CI [-5,+5]); the only statistical lean is Over 51.1% on a 6.5 total in our weakest market. Everything routes 0 units.