Vegas Golden Knights at Utah Mammoth

NHL May 02, 2026 02:00 AM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

64% Sharp Lean

SPREAD

Vegas Golden Knights

-2.0

Sharp 12.1% edge on away cover + +30.6% EV vs fair value (28.4% implied); home -6.3% from Hayton injury

Ω Bottom Line

Vegas -2 sharp 12.1% edge + $94k whale steam vs injured Utah (-6.3%), +5.2 EV

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

Vegas Golden Knights

Line: -2.0

64%

Sharp 12.1% edge on away cover + +30.6% EV vs fair value (28.4% implied); home -6.3% from Hayton injury

MONEYLINE

Vegas Golden Knights

60%

Breakeven 53.3% exceeded by 3.2% (our 56.5%); aligns with sharp weak edge + whale strong away

TOTAL

over

Line: 4.0

57%

Sharp 12.7% edge on over with RLM confirmation; fair value 52.7% over

Game Analysis

Sharp money hammers home spread with 20.7% edge + RLM despite MC slight away lean; +37% EV on Utah -1 vs Pinnacle fair 71.8% cover prob. Hayton out costs Utah 6.3% but Keller usage spike offsets. MC under 74.6% crushes market total 6.0 given proj 15.8 score.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Clayton Keller Utah Mammoth

Over 0.5 points 58%

High-usage leader vs Vegas; model proj 0.9pts, home tilt despite injury

PROP ALERT

Dylan Guenther Utah Mammoth

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Season leader but low proj 0.2 vs Vegas D; injury cascade limits chances

PROP ALERT

Clayton Keller Utah Mammoth

Over 0.5 assists 57%

88 assists leader; proj 0.7, primary playmaker with Hayton out

PROP ALERT

Dylan Guenther Utah Mammoth

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 55%

Volume shooter proj 3.0; matchup favors attempts

PROP ALERT

Clayton Keller Utah Mammoth

Over 2.0 shots_on_goal 59%

Consistent SOG; proj 2.5 home game

PROP ALERT

Dylan Guenther Utah Mammoth

Under 0.5 points 55%

Proj 0.4; Vegas PK strong vs wingers

PROP ALERT

Barrett Hayton Utah Mammoth

Under 0.5 points 60%

OUT confirmed; auto-under

PROP ALERT

Clayton Keller Utah Mammoth

Under 0.5 goals 56%

Proj 0.2; low total game

PROP ALERT

Jack Eichel Vegas Golden Knights

Over 1.0 points 59%

Elite producer proj 1.2; Utah injury boosts matchup

PROP ALERT

Pavel Dorofeyev Vegas Golden Knights

Over 0.5 goals 57%

37G leader proj 0.6; favorable total over signal

PROP ALERT

Jack Eichel Vegas Golden Knights

Over 0.5 assists 58%

90A leader; proj 0.8 as playmaker

PROP ALERT

Pavel Dorofeyev Vegas Golden Knights

Over 2.5 shots_on_goal 56%

Volume proj 3.0; road favorite pace

PROP ALERT

Jack Eichel Vegas Golden Knights

Over 3.0 shots_on_goal 60%

High volume; proj 3.4 vs depleted Utah

PROP ALERT

Pavel Dorofeyev Vegas Golden Knights

Over 0.5 points 55%

Proj 0.8; sharp away edge cascades

PROP ALERT

Jack Eichel Vegas Golden Knights

Over 0.5 goals 57%

Proj 0.6; low total but over signal

PROP ALERT

Pavel Dorofeyev Vegas Golden Knights

Under 0.5 assists 55%

Goal-focused; proj 0.2 assists

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