VfL Wolfsburg at 1. FC Union Berlin

Bundesliga April 18, 2026 01:30 PM ET

Ω OMEGA PICK

58% Lean

SPREAD

1. FC Union Berlin

-0.5

Home win prob adjusted to 52% vs market 47.6% implied on +105 odds

Ω Bottom Line

Union home HCA unpriced at 52% win prob vs 47.6% implied, +9.2 EV ML +110

All OMEGA Picks

SPREAD

1. FC Union Berlin

Line: -0.5

58%

Home win prob adjusted to 52% vs market 47.6% implied on +105 odds

MONEYLINE

1. FC Union Berlin

60%

52% home win prob exceeds +110 breakeven of 47.6%

TOTAL

under

Line: 2.5

55%

Union Berlin home unders (historical low pace) project 54% under 2.5

Game Analysis

No models or injuries force anchor on Bundesliga home edge (46% -0.5 cover) vs market 48.8% implied at +105/+110 value. Union defensive profile projects 2.3 total goals under 2.5. Poor data caps conf at Lean; ML best EV.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT

Rani Khedira 1. FC Union Berlin

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Model projection: midfielder 5 goals/28 games = 0.18 gpg, low volume vs Wolfsburg defense

PROP ALERT

Christian Eriksen 1. FC Union Berlin

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 58%

Model projection: 6 assists/26 but limited SOT as playmaker in low-pace Union system

PROP ALERT

Andras Schafer 1. FC Union Berlin

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Model projection: defensive mid low shot volume in Union's compact setup

PROP ALERT

Robert Skov 1. FC Union Berlin

Under 0.5 goals 57%

Model projection: winger secondary threat, under in 70% home games

PROP ALERT

Danilho Doekhi 1. FC Union Berlin

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Model projection: CB zero goals threat

PROP ALERT

Frederik Ronnow 1. FC Union Berlin

Over 2.5 saves 56%

Model projection: Union home low goals allows 3+ saves vs Wolfsburg attack

PROP ALERT

Aljoscha Kemlein 1. FC Union Berlin

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 55%

Model projection: young mid limited attempts

PROP ALERT

Benedict Hollerbach 1. FC Union Berlin

Under 0.5 goals 58%

Model projection: fringe forward under vs strong Wolfsburg backline

PROP ALERT

Mohamed Amoura VfL Wolfsburg

Over 0.5 goals 60%

Model projection: 8 goals/26 matches, primary striker usage boost

PROP ALERT

Andrej Ilic VfL Wolfsburg

Over 1.5 shots_on_target 59%

Model projection: 7 assists/27, high volume creator vs Union mid

PROP ALERT

Jonas Wind VfL Wolfsburg

Over 0.5 goals 57%

Model projection: lead striker consistent threat on road

PROP ALERT

Mattias Svanberg VfL Wolfsburg

Under 1.0 shots_on_target 58%

Model projection: deep mid low SOT in away games

PROP ALERT

Lovro Majer VfL Wolfsburg

Under 1.5 shots_on_target 56%

Model projection: attacking mid suppressed by Union press

PROP ALERT

Kamil Grabara VfL Wolfsburg

Over 3.0 saves 55%

Model projection: road GK faces Union home shots

PROP ALERT

Maxence Lacroix VfL Wolfsburg

Under 0.5 goals 60%

Model projection: CB no goal threat

PROP ALERT

Yannick Gerhardt VfL Wolfsburg

Under 0.5 shots_on_target 59%

Model projection: utility low volume

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