Villarreal at Girona
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
SPREAD
Villarreal
-0.5
Villarreal's superior 18-4-7 record vs Girona's weak 8-10-11 drives model edge
Ω Bottom Line
Villarreal ML -130: 18-4-7 record crushes Girona's 8-10-11 (+4.8 EV, 62% model prob)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Villarreal
Line: -0.5
Villarreal's superior 18-4-7 record vs Girona's weak 8-10-11 drives model edge
MONEYLINE
Villarreal
Model prob 62% vs -130 breakeven 56.5%; Villarreal's record dominance
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
LaLiga avg 2.4 goals/game; Girona poor scoring form supports under
Game Analysis
Villarreal -0.5 (-160) offers 3.2 EV with model projecting 1.6-1.2 scoreline (62% cover prob vs 55.6% implied). ML -125 at +4.8 EV best play as LaLiga moneylines profitable in calibration. O2.5 lean from 2.8 projected total but totals losing historically—cap at 55%.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Gerard Moreno
Villarreal
Over 0.5 goals
58%
Moreno primary scorer for strong Villarreal attack
PROP ALERT
Yeremy Pino
Villarreal
Under 0.5 goals
55%
Secondary role behind Moreno; model projection
PROP ALERT
Dani Baena
Villarreal
Over 0.5 assists
56%
Creative midfielder in Villarreal's possession style
PROP ALERT
Ayoze Pérez
Villarreal
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
57%
High-volume shooter vs Girona defense