Villarreal at Mallorca
Ω
OMEGA PICK
58%
Lean
TOTAL
UNDER
2.5
LaLiga typical 2.65 gpg regresses under 2.5 total (52% historical over rate) in neutral matchup
Ω Bottom Line
Tiny +0.1 EV Villarreal ML (57.5% posterior = -135 breakeven) in poor-data spot, PASS unless improves; under 2.5 +3.1 EV
All OMEGA Picks
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
LaLiga typical 2.65 gpg regresses under 2.5 total (52% historical over rate) in neutral matchup
Game Analysis
Bayesian posterior fuses to 57.5% Villarreal win matching market exactly for 0% edge, tiny ML EV at -135 but fails 5% breakeven buffer. Spread -175 overjuices to negative EV despite alignment. Under 2.5 leans best with LaLiga ~52% over hit rate at this total, no pace/injury contras.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Vedat Muriqi
Mallorca
Over 0.5 goals
60%
Season-leading 21 goals in 33 matches (0.64 gpg), model projects 0.7 at home
PROP ALERT
Vedat Muriqi
Mallorca
Over 1.5 shots_on_target
58%
High volume striker, projected 1.9 SOT vs Villarreal defense
PROP ALERT
Sergi Darder
Mallorca
Under 0.5 assists
59%
Low assist volume 5 in 34 games, projects 0.2 in mid usage role
PROP ALERT
Leo Román
Mallorca
Over 3.0 saves
56%
Home goalie facing Villarreal attack, model projects 3.4 saves
PROP ALERT
Martin Valjent
Mallorca
Over 1.0 blocks
55%
Defender projects 1.2 blocks vs Villarreal forwards
PROP ALERT
Vedat Muriqi
Mallorca
Under 2.0 shots_on_target
57%
Projects 1.7 SOT, under in tighter matchup
PROP ALERT
Georges Mikautadze
Villarreal
Under 0.5 goals
60%
11 goals in 29 matches (0.38 gpg), projects 0.3 away
PROP ALERT
Nicolas Pépé
Villarreal
Under 0.5 assists
58%
6 assists in 33 games, low projection 0.2 on road
PROP ALERT
Georges Mikautadze
Villarreal
Over 1.0 shots_on_target
57%
Projects 1.3 SOT as key forward
PROP ALERT
Georges Mikautadze
Villarreal
Under 0.5 goals
59%
Regression from 0.38 avg, tough Mallorca defense projection