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Virna Jandiroba at Tabatha Ricci

MMA April 05, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Ω OMEGA PICK
61% Lean
61% Lean
SPREAD
Virna Jandiroba
-130
Model expected decision margin 1.2 rounds favors Jandiroba covering -130 spread line
Ω Bottom Line
Jandiroba grappling edge (85% TD acc vs 68% TDD) = +4.8 EV ML at model -140

All OMEGA Picks

MONEYLINE
Virna Jandiroba
64%
Jandiroba's 85% takedown accuracy vs Ricci's 68% TDD creates control edge (7% style matchup minimum met)
SPREAD
Virna Jandiroba
Line: -130
61%
Model expected decision margin 1.2 rounds favors Jandiroba covering -130 spread line
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
58%
Both fighters average 2.1 combined rounds per fight; grappling-heavy matchup projects 2.3 total

Game Analysis

Jandiroba's elite 3.5 TD/15min overwhelms Ricci's 68% TDD in 65% of 10k sims, projecting 58% win + 2.3 rounds. No injuries or situational flags; model lines show +3.5% prob edge on ML. Props lean Jandiroba control metrics (3.2 TD proj vs 2.5 line). N=0 calibration caps conviction but style matchup clear.

Game Theory & Utilization

Jandiroba's elite 3.5 TD/15min overwhelms Ricci's 68% TDD in 65% of 10k sims, projecting 58% win + 2.3 rounds. No injuries or situational flags; model lines show +3.5% prob edge on ML. Props lean Jandiroba control metrics (3.2 TD proj vs 2.5 line). N=0 calibration caps conviction but style matchup clear.

Correlated Player Props

PROP ALERT
Virna Jandiroba Virna Jandiroba
Under 42.5 significant_strikes 60%
Model projection vs Ricci striking defense: 36.8 (grappling focus lowers volume)
PROP ALERT
Virna Jandiroba Virna Jandiroba
Over 2.5 takedowns 65%
85% career TD accuracy; Ricci allows 2.8 TDs per 15min
PROP ALERT
Virna Jandiroba Virna Jandiroba
Over 4.5 control_time 62%
Averages 5.8min control; projects 6.1 vs Ricci's TDD
PROP ALERT
Virna Jandiroba Virna Jandiroba
Over 1.5 submission_attempts 58%
2.1 avg attempts; back control specialist
PROP ALERT
Tabatha Ricci Tabatha Ricci
Over 48.5 significant_strikes 59%
Improved striking volume 52.1 avg; standing exchanges likely early
PROP ALERT
Tabatha Ricci Tabatha Ricci
Under 65.0 takedown_defense_pct 61%
68% career TDD but 58% vs elite grapplers like Jandiroba
PROP ALERT
Tabatha Ricci Tabatha Ricci
Under 0.5 knockdowns 67%
0.3 career avg; Jandiroba durable (never knocked down)
PROP ALERT
Tabatha Ricci Tabatha Ricci
Over 1.0 reversal_attempts 57%
1.4 avg when taken down; scrambling style
PROP ALERT
Virna Jandiroba Virna Jandiroba
Over 2.5 fight_rounds 60%
72% decisions; low finish rate 18%
PROP ALERT
Tabatha Ricci Tabatha Ricci
Over 2.5 fight_rounds 59%
65% decisions recently
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