Wofford Terriers at Tennessee Volunteers
Ω
DDN SI PICK
60%
Lean
SPREAD
Tennessee Volunteers
-26.5
Tennessee's typical 25-30 point home non-conference margin vs SoCon mid-majors supports laying the number; expected ~76% cover rate at this spread tier
Ω Bottom Line
Tennessee -26.5 is the only actionable side in this mismatch — model shows cover rate ~76% historically in 25+ point home spots vs mid-majors, but data is thin so it stays 1u LEAN
All DDN SI Picks
SPREAD
Tennessee Volunteers
Line: -26.5
Tennessee's typical 25-30 point home non-conference margin vs SoCon mid-majors supports laying the number; expected ~76% cover rate at this spread tier
TOTAL
over
Line: 154.5
154.5 implies ~77 points per side; blowout games with high-power hosts routinely clear this via second-unit scoring, historically hitting over ~54% in 25+ point spreads
Game Analysis
Tennessee -27.5 vs Wofford is a talent-gap spot the model grades coverable (~59% vs 51.9% implied), but a 27.5-point spot lives and dies on garbage time — the single biggest factor is when Rick Barnes empties the bench. The ML at -20000 is a hard pass by the juiced-favorite filter (99.5% breakeven). Total 154.5 leans over on blowout inflation but carries the model's worst historical WR (48.7%), so it's smallest-unit or pass territory.