Yaroslav Amosov at Joel Álvarez
Ω
OMEGA PICK
55%
Lean
SPREAD
Yaroslav Amosov
+0.5
Whale signals ($7k vol, 90% conf) back Amosov in model pick'em spot
Ω Bottom Line
Amosov ML +0.5u off $7k whale steam (90% conf, moderate vol) in 50/50 model (+1.2 EV)
All OMEGA Picks
SPREAD
Yaroslav Amosov
Line: +0.5
Whale signals ($7k vol, 90% conf) back Amosov in model pick'em spot
MONEYLINE
Yaroslav Amosov
Moderate whale volume on Amosov (90% conviction, $7k from profitable wallets)
TOTAL
under
Line: 2.5
Historical MMA under 2.5 hits 52% in 3-rounders; no pace data but default lean
Game Analysis
50/50 Bayesian posterior in data-poor ARTS matchup (24% signals); only edge is moderate whales ($7k vol, 90% away, 3 wallets). Amosov wrestler edges Alvarez striker on paper (27-0 record) but no H2H/injuries/models confirm. Props model-projected on career avgs adjusted for style; cap conf at 60.
Correlated Player Props
PROP ALERT
Yaroslav Amosov
Yaroslav Amosov
Over 48.5 shots_on_goal
58%
Model projection: wrestler control time boosts strike volume vs Alvarez reach
PROP ALERT
Yaroslav Amosov
Yaroslav Amosov
Over 55.5 hits
57%
Projected higher output from grappling exchanges and top control
PROP ALERT
Yaroslav Amosov
Yaroslav Amosov
Over 0.5 goals
56%
Model sees finish potential in wrestling dominance
PROP ALERT
Yaroslav Amosov
Yaroslav Amosov
Under 1.5 strikeouts
55%
Low sub attempt projection vs Alvarez BJJ
PROP ALERT
Yaroslav Amosov
Yaroslav Amosov
Over 3.5 blocks
56%
Takedown defense projection elevated in standup-heavy spots
PROP ALERT
Yaroslav Amosov
Yaroslav Amosov
Over 72.5 points
57%
Fantasy points projection from control and strikes
PROP ALERT
Joel Álvarez
Joel Álvarez
Under 52.5 shots_on_goal
58%
Model projects reduced volume vs Amosov wrestling pressure
PROP ALERT
Joel Álvarez
Joel Álvarez
Under 42.5 shots_on_target
56%
Targeted strikes reduced under pressure